June 1st has come and gone and the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season is now officially underway. While tropical activity doesn’t usually heat up until much later in the season, usually between August and October, emergency planners are surely keeping their ears and eyes open. After all, it was only a few months ago that Hurricane Florence (September 2018) and Hurricane Michael (October 2018) wreaked havoc in the southeastern U.S.
So what should everyone expect from this year’s Atlantic Hurricane Season? Good question. Unfortunately, there’s no real way of knowing. All the more reason you should plan ahead and prepare your community (coastal or inland) now.
What the Experts Say
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its official season outlook on May 23, 2019. It said a near-average season is likely in the Atlantic basic, which includes the north Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. Of course, an average hurricane season equates to 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. And, it only takes one, like Hurricane Katrina, to cause billions of dollars of damage and claim the lives of thousands of people.
As for 2019, NOAA forecasters say there is a 70 percent probability of nine to 15 named storms, four to eight hurricanes, and two to four major hurricanes. That means they’ll be classified as Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson scale. There’s already been one short-lived cyclone, Andrea, that didn’t make landfall. Now, the second, Barry, has a 60 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before it makes its way inland. Regardless of development, NOAA believes the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the coming days.
Next on the list is Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto and others. All the way to Wendy (but hopefully, we won’t get that far into the list).